Game Planning: A Statistical Analysis and How to Win More Games

Rushing

One cannot have a conversation about the Michigan running game without talking about injuries along the offensive line. That was clearly an issue in the second half against the Spartans and the entire game against the Hoosiers. Losing both starting tackles and reshuffling three-fifths of the offensive line as a result was a huge blow to a position group that was questionable going into the season to begin with. And it has contributed greatly to inconsistency in the line play, which has hurt the run-game the most over the last two games. Hassan Haskins and Zach Charbonnet are still averaging 7.8 yards per carry between them. It would be a real head-scratcher if Josh Gattis doesn't start to lean on those two guys more as the season progresses. So far they have only averaged 10 carries per game combined. They should be getting at least 10 carries per game each, if not 12 to 15, especially when you consider that nobody else with more than two carries on the season is averaging more than four yards per carry. If this team wants any chance of beating Ohio State it needs to recognize who its play-makers are and what their identity is on offense. It's not hard to see that Haskins is your best option to start and Charbonnet is your best option to sub. So why is Haskins not even getting any reps until the second quarter in Bloomington? Chris Evans and Blake Corum should get some opportunities in third and long situations, but if I were coaching I would reduce the number of reps they are getting in favor of the top two guys in the rotation. They just aren't as consistent. Once the O-line gets healthy and settled in a bit then maybe the entire room could start to actually do some damage on the ground. It sounds like both Ryan Hayes and Jalen Mayfield could both be back for Wisconsin this week. That could be key and is something to be monitored. 

Passing

Once again, it's hard to talk about the passing game without mentioning the struggles along the O-line. Joe Milton has faced a decent amount of pressure the last couple weeks, so that just needs to stop. It at least needs to slow down a little bit. Otherwise, we will start to see more interceptions being thrown by the young passer. Statistically speaking, Milton doesn't look terrible. But while he doesn't look bad on paper he has looked erratic in live action. He needs help getting settled into a rhythm and finding a groove. It happened against a wounded Minnesota team, but it hasn't happened in the weeks since. The receivers haven't always been there to help out and they definitely should shoulder some of the blame. In all, there have been several catchable balls that have been dropped downfield, including four by tight end Erick All. Harbaugh coincidentally touted him as having the best hands on the team before the season eve  started. It's easy for a fan to see how different the last two weeks could've turned out for the team had he caught the balls thrown right to him in those respective contests. In other words, they were drive killers and led to another punt. All will be given some opportunities to redeem himself but I would expect the staff to begin relying on 5th-year senior Nick Eubanks more now that he is recovered from a preseason injury. Junior Ronnie Bell has shown up as the team's top returning wide-out. He is averaging over 19 yards per catch on nearly five catches per game. True freshman Roman Wilson statistically is the most productive receiver per snap count, so we should expect to see him getting more reps going forward. Cornelius Johnson is starting emerge too, and once the rest of the offense starts improving I believe we will see him gain some momentum as a pass-catcher. He truly might have the best hands in the unit. Giles Jackson and Mike Saintristil have been very disappointing for the most part. I believe Gattis should pull back the reigns on these two a little bit in favor of the other three guys I already mentioned. Maybe they should just concentrate on their return games more. It could just be what's best for the team. I would also like to see a little more of freshman A.J. Henning as one of the top subs, as he might actually be the most explosive athlete in the bunch.

Defensive Front

Two things really stand out to me here: 1. The team has not produced a sack in two back to back losses. 2. Safety Brad Hawkins leads the team in tackles on the season. Those two stats tell me that the defensive line is getting handled by opposing offensive lines so they aren't able to generate real pressure up front and the running backs they are facing are consistently getting a few yards downfield before being hit. The fact the team has only registered a total of 14 tackles for a loss and both starting inside linebackers are third and fourth in total tackles in three games is a testament to the front four's inability to penetrate the backfield and wreak havoc behind the line. Perhaps nobody has been more disappointing than end Aiden Hutchinson. Up until his potential season-ending injury in the first half against Indiana, he had yet to post a sack or a single tackle for a loss on the season. He was also just sixth on the total tackles list. I hate to say it but I was simply expecting more from him. Even in the win against Minnesota I thought he had gotten pushed around too much. Is it possible that the weight he lost in the off-season was good weight worth keeping? Meanwhile, fellow end Kwity Paye has been the best player on the entire defense with five of the team's six QB pressures last Saturday at Indiana. He also leads the team in sacks (2) and TFL's (4). Outside of Donovan Jeter's fumble return for a touchdown, the top three interior tackles haven't really done much. Carlo Kemp has easily been the most consistent player on the interior, but that really isn't saying too much. The time for Jeter to step up is now, as it is for fellow tackle and former 5-Star recruit Christopher Hinton. If they don't soon it will be the longest eight-game season ever. 

The Secondary

Well there is no hiding from the fact that the Michigan corners are playing with little to no confidence at the moment. It's gotten so bad that they are drawing pass interference calls on plays where the ball is really just getting thrown away but they panic because they lost sight of it. Yes, it can be argued that many of the penalties where undue, but no team in the conference is worse than Michigan right now in yards given up on penalties this season, with a large portion of them coming against starting corners Vincent Gray and Gemon Green. Gray has actually been the worst player on defense the last two weeks and he just looks like a fish out of water. Something has to be done to restore his confidence, though one good game could do just that. In the meantime, I expect to see Dax Hill getting more responsibilities lined up on top opponents. He is the most explosive athlete and possesses the best coverage skills in the secondary. He should be lined up on the number one guy most of the time, particularly in obvious passing situations. I would then sit Gray on the bench for a little bit, bringing him in for some sub packages. Give Green the nod over Gray simply because he has more passes defended and not as many penalties given up. In all, he has just been the more confident player despite looking lost a few times too. I think we need to see more guys like D.J. Turner II, Jalen Perry, Sammy Faustin, and Makari Paige getting reps in the defensive backfield over Gray until he begins to prove himself once again. At any rate, if Hill is covering wide-outs then somebody will need to fill in at the safety spot next to Hawkins. 

So, basically, Michigan's recipe for success for the remainder of the season is this:

Step 1. Get Healthy - This is particularly in regards to the offensive line. It's too much to ask of the unit with both starting tackles out with injury. The linebackers could stand to be a little healthier too and their production isn't quite where I had hoped so far this season. Losing Hutchinson to injury for an indefinite amount of time is huge too.

Step 2. Cut the Penalties - Get better in this department and the team should at least automatically not lose all the rest of the games on the schedule. If they stay at the bottom of the conference then they could very well stay there in the overall standings as well. 

Step 3. Find the Playmakers - Harbaugh and Gattis seem to have ignored the obvious in the last couple games and opted to not feed the ball to their most productive players, instead displaying a determination to spread the ball around. Hopefully they will begin to identify their top five or six playmakers and start focusing on getting them the ball, despite whether or not it hurts anybody's feelings. On offense, feed the ball to Haskins and Charbonnet on the ground and target Bell, Wilson, and Johnson more through the air. On defense, get Hill in position to cover top opposing targets and find somebody to rush the passer.