The Big Open
Michigan Vs. Florida Preview
The Setup: To put it simply, the Gators are looking to beat the Wolverines for the first time in four tries while avenging the last loss, a 41-7 shellacking in the Citrus Bowl two years ago. It is now year three in both Harbaugh's and Florida Coach Jim McElwain's tenures. Expectations keep getting higher for both coaches. McElwain has managed to win the SEC East Division the last two years while compiling a 19-8 record. Comparatively, Harbaugh has yet to beat Ohio State or win the Big Ten East Division with a 20-6 record. On the surface, this looks like a big game. And it is for sure. These are two big-time college football programs with a lot of history and traditions. However, the game itself has very little impact on how the season will play out for either team. First of all, it has zero impact on their respective conferences records, which is the single most important stat in college football. Of course a win for either team would provide some bragging rights, and it could possibly help when vying for a playoff bid down the road, but neither team really has much to lose here. In other words, this could have the look and feel of a pure rivalry game. I expect a good ol' fashioned, balls-out gridiron brawl, despite the fact that Florida has suspended multiple starters for the game, including thier All-American candidate at wide reciever, Antonio Callaway. In fact, with the most recent news of starting running back Jordan Scarlett also being suspended for the week, the Wolverines should have no problem beating the 3.5 to 4 point spread that the Vegas casinos were holding on to up through Wednesday. Take that bet now. It's likely to change in the next couple days leading up to the game. And I will go low with the over/under at 43.5 points, as we should not expect a barn-burner of any kind.
The Key Matchups:
These are the areas where each team may have an advantage over the other. Points are awarded based on the relative matchup advantages and the percieved point differentials they create. Matchups that are not included are considered a wash with neither team having a clear advantage
Gators' Wide Receivers vs. Wolverines' Cornerbacks
The Gators return to 2017 well-stocked with talent and experience at the receiver position. Even with Antonio Callaway out due to a one-game suspension, the Gators should still be fine out wide. They have three other guys that caught at least 14 balls last year, including Brandon Powell, who was second on the team with 45 receptions. Tyrie Cleveland averaged over 21 yards per catch last season as a freshman. They've got some depth too. Add all that up with the fact that the Gators return their top two tight ends from a year ago and one can see a bit of a challenge here for the Michigan defense. As we all know, the Wolverines' respective cornerback situation is a bit murky going into the season. It is really impossible to say exactly how things will play out as we know nothing about the real capabilities of the current candidates to start. Yes, there is talent. It's not like Harbaugh just backed up the turnip truck and dumped a load on the field to fill holes on the roster. There are five players that were rated as 4-Star prospects coming out of high school. However, Lavert Hill looks like the only lock to start in week one. The group just hasn't played much yet, if at all. Can the coaches get a quick turnaround on all that raw talent? Having a stellar pass rush definitely will help the cause, though I would not be completely shocked to see a surprise performance from a Florida passer who is able to find open receivers in the seams of a completely retooled Michigan secondary. So this matchup will really depend a lot on how things play out at quarterback for the Gators. Despite that, it's just too hard to bet against this group of receivers having a good game against those corners.
Advantage: Florida - 7 pts
Gators' Linebackers vs. Wolverines' Running Backs and Fullbacks
Like Michigan, Florida lost a lot of talent up front with five of their players out of last year's front seven getting drafted by NFL teams. There is some talent to fill in, but it will be very tough to improve upon a unit that was fifth in the nation in total defense last year. In all, this is a matchup that favors the stable of tailbacks and fullbacks that the Wolverines are toting into 2017. Chris Evans will be looking to build upon a stellar freshman debut last year and Karan Higdon, of Sarasota, will want to show his home state of Florida just how well he is doing in Ann Arbor these days. Expect a healthy dose of Kahlid Hill and Henry Poggi on lead blocks. Hill is also a receiving threat on third downs and a rushing threat near the goalline. There might not be a more versatile fullback in the country. The Gators' linebackers could get some help from their D-line. A monster game from the guys in the trenches will be needed if they want a real chance at stopping the Michigan running game. There seems to be too much depth and versatility coming out of Harbaugh's backfield though, and they will be dangerous once they get to the second level of Florida's defense.
Advantage: Michigan - 9 pts
Gators' Running Backs vs. Michigan Linebackers
Florida was lucky enough to be returning it's top three rushers from a year ago, but returning leader Jordan Scarlett (889 yards, 6 TDs) will not be playing in this game. That leaves a pretty big hole in the offensive depth chart. Backups Mark Thompson and Lamical Perine are decent, but neither of them look like starters. Meanwhile on defense, the Wolverines return one starter in All-Big Ten candidate Mike McCray II, a fifth-year senior. That doesn't seem like much, but he had a monster season in 2016 and he should be a leader on this defense. Devin Bush Jr. and Kahleke Hudson fill out the starting lineup. Both are young sophomores with one year of experience as backups. Both have very high ceilings and a lot is expected of them. There is also a host of highly-touted youngsters in the hopper to provide depth, as well as a couple seniors. Florida would have won this matchp with Jordan in the lineup, but with him out the advantage goes to Michigan.
Advantage: Michigan - 3pts
Gators O-Line vs. Wolverines' D-Line
This is the matchup of the day right here. The Gators' OL is led by left tackle Martez Ivy and right tackle Jawaan Taylor. Both guys look like they could be among the best in the SEC. Tyler Jordan should be solid at right guard but center and left guard could be sore spots with some unproven guys trying to step up into starting roles there. True freshman Tedarrell Slaton could be just the guy they need inside if he is ready. The real problem for Florida here is that they could be facing one of the best starting D-line units in the country. Michigan tackles Mo' Hurst and Bryan Mone should be the best starting inside combo in the Big Ten with the ability to shove lesser opponents aside like rag dolls. Both guys should be very high draft picks and therefore will be a handful for whoever starts inside for the Gators. And if Florida tries to double team either one of them, they could be leaving a hole for ends Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich to exploit on the edge. Both of them are expected to have breakout years too. In fact, Gary is being talked about as one of the top 50 players to watch in 2017, and his matchup with Taylor will particularly be a key factor in this game. It's a big task for Florida, but it's not an impossible one that they don't have the raw talent and coaching to overcome. They will just need to fend off the pass-rush enough to allow a passer to find those open receivers. In the end though, it's hard to imagine the Wolverines losing this matchup.
Advantage: Michigan - 6 pts
Gators' Defensive Ends vs. Wolverines' Offensive Tackles
Michigan was short on talent out at tackle after Grant Newsome's devastating knee injury last year against Wisconsin, so the coaches moved All-American-caliber center Mason Cole back out on the left side where he played his first two seasons. The right side could be manned by any number of guys competing, but it will probably come down to either Juwann Bushell-Beatty or Jon Runyan Jr. Even with Cole, himself a Florida native, in the lineup, this is a matchup that the Floida Gators' could exploit. Jabari Zuniga, Cece Jefferson, Jordan Sherit, and Antonneous Clayton will all provide a challenge for the Michigan tackles. Otherwise, the Gators are pretty green at defensive tackle while the Wolverines are breaking in a new center and right guard. And let's face it, a couple well-timed plays by the Gator ends could provide some game-changing moments.
Advantage: Florida - 5 pts
Punter vs. Punter
Florida has a much better punting situation going into 2017 than Michigan, without a question. Johnny Townsend was first in the nation in yards per punt with a 47.9 yard average last year. Despite anything I've said before, the Townsend factor could go a long way towards Florida controlling this game. Michigan has a freshman recruit and a redshirt freshman walk-on to compete for their punting job. This is a no-brainer.
Advantage: Florida - 5 pts
Quarterbacks vs. Quarterbacks
Though they obviously won't be lining up against one another on the field, this contest will ultimately be decided by the play of the quarterbacks. Each team's questions at quarterback are very differnt. For Michigan it is: Can Wilton Speight hold off the competition and improve upon his 9-3 record as a starter? For Florida it is: Can a graduate transfer that was a Notre Dame backup or a redshirt freshman come in and save the day? Sorry Gators, but it's just too hard to bet against the stable of talent that Harbaugh has in Ann Arbor right now. Seriously, there might be as many as three future pro quaterbacks sitting on the depth chart right now.
Advantage: Michigan - 9 pts
Gators' Kicker Vs. Wolverines' Kicker
This is where a close game truly favors the Gators. Kicker Eddy Pineiro is returning as a second-team All-SEC player from 2016. At times, he has been the highlight of the Florida offense. That could be trouble for the Wolverines, who will be breaking in a new kicker. However, redshirt freshman Quinn Nordin possesses all the potential needed to be an All-American candidate some day. Can he produce for the team right away? Harbaugh thinks so. He didn't climb that tree and sleep over at Nordin's house for nothing.
Advantage: Gators - 3 pts
The Difference Maker:
These teams really grade out similarly. Each team has it's strengths and weaknesses, and the outcome will be determined by how they are utilized and exploited, respectively. It is not unreasonable to think that this game will come down to one big play late in the fourth quarter to seal it up for either team. If you look at how the roster's are packed though, particularly with regards to the last few recruiting classes, the edge does go to Michigan. Pile on the recent suspensions and it's easy to see the Wolverines running away with it by the end.
Point Totals: Michigan 27-Florida 20
Winner: Michigan
The Setup: To put it simply, the Gators are looking to beat the Wolverines for the first time in four tries while avenging the last loss, a 41-7 shellacking in the Citrus Bowl two years ago. It is now year three in both Harbaugh's and Florida Coach Jim McElwain's tenures. Expectations keep getting higher for both coaches. McElwain has managed to win the SEC East Division the last two years while compiling a 19-8 record. Comparatively, Harbaugh has yet to beat Ohio State or win the Big Ten East Division with a 20-6 record. On the surface, this looks like a big game. And it is for sure. These are two big-time college football programs with a lot of history and traditions. However, the game itself has very little impact on how the season will play out for either team. First of all, it has zero impact on their respective conferences records, which is the single most important stat in college football. Of course a win for either team would provide some bragging rights, and it could possibly help when vying for a playoff bid down the road, but neither team really has much to lose here. In other words, this could have the look and feel of a pure rivalry game. I expect a good ol' fashioned, balls-out gridiron brawl, despite the fact that Florida has suspended multiple starters for the game, including thier All-American candidate at wide reciever, Antonio Callaway. In fact, with the most recent news of starting running back Jordan Scarlett also being suspended for the week, the Wolverines should have no problem beating the 3.5 to 4 point spread that the Vegas casinos were holding on to up through Wednesday. Take that bet now. It's likely to change in the next couple days leading up to the game. And I will go low with the over/under at 43.5 points, as we should not expect a barn-burner of any kind.
The Key Matchups:
These are the areas where each team may have an advantage over the other. Points are awarded based on the relative matchup advantages and the percieved point differentials they create. Matchups that are not included are considered a wash with neither team having a clear advantage
Gators' Wide Receivers vs. Wolverines' Cornerbacks
The Gators return to 2017 well-stocked with talent and experience at the receiver position. Even with Antonio Callaway out due to a one-game suspension, the Gators should still be fine out wide. They have three other guys that caught at least 14 balls last year, including Brandon Powell, who was second on the team with 45 receptions. Tyrie Cleveland averaged over 21 yards per catch last season as a freshman. They've got some depth too. Add all that up with the fact that the Gators return their top two tight ends from a year ago and one can see a bit of a challenge here for the Michigan defense. As we all know, the Wolverines' respective cornerback situation is a bit murky going into the season. It is really impossible to say exactly how things will play out as we know nothing about the real capabilities of the current candidates to start. Yes, there is talent. It's not like Harbaugh just backed up the turnip truck and dumped a load on the field to fill holes on the roster. There are five players that were rated as 4-Star prospects coming out of high school. However, Lavert Hill looks like the only lock to start in week one. The group just hasn't played much yet, if at all. Can the coaches get a quick turnaround on all that raw talent? Having a stellar pass rush definitely will help the cause, though I would not be completely shocked to see a surprise performance from a Florida passer who is able to find open receivers in the seams of a completely retooled Michigan secondary. So this matchup will really depend a lot on how things play out at quarterback for the Gators. Despite that, it's just too hard to bet against this group of receivers having a good game against those corners.
Advantage: Florida - 7 pts
Gators' Linebackers vs. Wolverines' Running Backs and Fullbacks
Like Michigan, Florida lost a lot of talent up front with five of their players out of last year's front seven getting drafted by NFL teams. There is some talent to fill in, but it will be very tough to improve upon a unit that was fifth in the nation in total defense last year. In all, this is a matchup that favors the stable of tailbacks and fullbacks that the Wolverines are toting into 2017. Chris Evans will be looking to build upon a stellar freshman debut last year and Karan Higdon, of Sarasota, will want to show his home state of Florida just how well he is doing in Ann Arbor these days. Expect a healthy dose of Kahlid Hill and Henry Poggi on lead blocks. Hill is also a receiving threat on third downs and a rushing threat near the goalline. There might not be a more versatile fullback in the country. The Gators' linebackers could get some help from their D-line. A monster game from the guys in the trenches will be needed if they want a real chance at stopping the Michigan running game. There seems to be too much depth and versatility coming out of Harbaugh's backfield though, and they will be dangerous once they get to the second level of Florida's defense.
Advantage: Michigan - 9 pts
Gators' Running Backs vs. Michigan Linebackers
Florida was lucky enough to be returning it's top three rushers from a year ago, but returning leader Jordan Scarlett (889 yards, 6 TDs) will not be playing in this game. That leaves a pretty big hole in the offensive depth chart. Backups Mark Thompson and Lamical Perine are decent, but neither of them look like starters. Meanwhile on defense, the Wolverines return one starter in All-Big Ten candidate Mike McCray II, a fifth-year senior. That doesn't seem like much, but he had a monster season in 2016 and he should be a leader on this defense. Devin Bush Jr. and Kahleke Hudson fill out the starting lineup. Both are young sophomores with one year of experience as backups. Both have very high ceilings and a lot is expected of them. There is also a host of highly-touted youngsters in the hopper to provide depth, as well as a couple seniors. Florida would have won this matchp with Jordan in the lineup, but with him out the advantage goes to Michigan.
Advantage: Michigan - 3pts
Gators O-Line vs. Wolverines' D-Line
This is the matchup of the day right here. The Gators' OL is led by left tackle Martez Ivy and right tackle Jawaan Taylor. Both guys look like they could be among the best in the SEC. Tyler Jordan should be solid at right guard but center and left guard could be sore spots with some unproven guys trying to step up into starting roles there. True freshman Tedarrell Slaton could be just the guy they need inside if he is ready. The real problem for Florida here is that they could be facing one of the best starting D-line units in the country. Michigan tackles Mo' Hurst and Bryan Mone should be the best starting inside combo in the Big Ten with the ability to shove lesser opponents aside like rag dolls. Both guys should be very high draft picks and therefore will be a handful for whoever starts inside for the Gators. And if Florida tries to double team either one of them, they could be leaving a hole for ends Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich to exploit on the edge. Both of them are expected to have breakout years too. In fact, Gary is being talked about as one of the top 50 players to watch in 2017, and his matchup with Taylor will particularly be a key factor in this game. It's a big task for Florida, but it's not an impossible one that they don't have the raw talent and coaching to overcome. They will just need to fend off the pass-rush enough to allow a passer to find those open receivers. In the end though, it's hard to imagine the Wolverines losing this matchup.
Advantage: Michigan - 6 pts
Gators' Defensive Ends vs. Wolverines' Offensive Tackles
Michigan was short on talent out at tackle after Grant Newsome's devastating knee injury last year against Wisconsin, so the coaches moved All-American-caliber center Mason Cole back out on the left side where he played his first two seasons. The right side could be manned by any number of guys competing, but it will probably come down to either Juwann Bushell-Beatty or Jon Runyan Jr. Even with Cole, himself a Florida native, in the lineup, this is a matchup that the Floida Gators' could exploit. Jabari Zuniga, Cece Jefferson, Jordan Sherit, and Antonneous Clayton will all provide a challenge for the Michigan tackles. Otherwise, the Gators are pretty green at defensive tackle while the Wolverines are breaking in a new center and right guard. And let's face it, a couple well-timed plays by the Gator ends could provide some game-changing moments.
Advantage: Florida - 5 pts
Punter vs. Punter
Florida has a much better punting situation going into 2017 than Michigan, without a question. Johnny Townsend was first in the nation in yards per punt with a 47.9 yard average last year. Despite anything I've said before, the Townsend factor could go a long way towards Florida controlling this game. Michigan has a freshman recruit and a redshirt freshman walk-on to compete for their punting job. This is a no-brainer.
Advantage: Florida - 5 pts
Quarterbacks vs. Quarterbacks
Though they obviously won't be lining up against one another on the field, this contest will ultimately be decided by the play of the quarterbacks. Each team's questions at quarterback are very differnt. For Michigan it is: Can Wilton Speight hold off the competition and improve upon his 9-3 record as a starter? For Florida it is: Can a graduate transfer that was a Notre Dame backup or a redshirt freshman come in and save the day? Sorry Gators, but it's just too hard to bet against the stable of talent that Harbaugh has in Ann Arbor right now. Seriously, there might be as many as three future pro quaterbacks sitting on the depth chart right now.
Advantage: Michigan - 9 pts
Gators' Kicker Vs. Wolverines' Kicker
This is where a close game truly favors the Gators. Kicker Eddy Pineiro is returning as a second-team All-SEC player from 2016. At times, he has been the highlight of the Florida offense. That could be trouble for the Wolverines, who will be breaking in a new kicker. However, redshirt freshman Quinn Nordin possesses all the potential needed to be an All-American candidate some day. Can he produce for the team right away? Harbaugh thinks so. He didn't climb that tree and sleep over at Nordin's house for nothing.
Advantage: Gators - 3 pts
The Difference Maker:
These teams really grade out similarly. Each team has it's strengths and weaknesses, and the outcome will be determined by how they are utilized and exploited, respectively. It is not unreasonable to think that this game will come down to one big play late in the fourth quarter to seal it up for either team. If you look at how the roster's are packed though, particularly with regards to the last few recruiting classes, the edge does go to Michigan. Pile on the recent suspensions and it's easy to see the Wolverines running away with it by the end.
Point Totals: Michigan 27-Florida 20
Winner: Michigan
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