Pre Ohio State Stock Report: Happy Turkey Day!
The State of the Program:
Last week nobody was giving the Wolverines a chance in this game against Ohio State. This week however, now that The Game is upon us, the sentiment is shifting a little bit. Folks are starting to believe that there is a good chance for an upset. The Vegas line has definitely shifted in that direction, coming down to nine after being in two touchdown territory.
There is talk of a Justin Fields injury. There is also talk that this game isn't as important to OSU, who is going to the Big Ten Championship game next week anyway, as it is to Michigan, who's entire season is basically coming down to it. The Harbaugh legacy is defiitely on the line a little bit as he does not want to go 0-5 in The Rivalry. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes could lose this game and still make the playoff as long as they win big next week.
There is the fact that Michigan is certainly peaking at the right time in regards to their season, so Michigan Nation is feeling a lot more confident in the team than they did just three weeks ago. Whether or not that feeling is short-lived doesn't matter. Just enjoy it while it's here. Just believe that the stars have basically aligned for a good ol' fashioned rivalry upset.
The Highlights:
QB Shea Patterson: Look, this team will go as far as the starting QB can take it, and everybody knows that Patterson didn't particularly look like the guy in the first half of the season. Many fans were asking for a change. We're not hearing that kind of chirp anymore though, as he's had his best games against some of their top competition in the last several weeks. In fact, he has an average passer rating of 166.73 over the last six games vs. Illinois, Penn State (#9 scoring defense), Notre Dame (#3 pass defense), Maryland, Michigan State (#21 in sacks), and Indiana (#25 pass defense). He has passed for nearly 800 yards with nine TD's and only one INT in the last two games alone. All those numbers are the types of numbers you see among the top 10 rated passers in the nation, including Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and Oregon's Justin Herbert. But it could be argued that none of the other top QB's in the country have faced as many good defenses throughout the season than Shea Patterson. Five of them, being Wisconsin (#11), Penn State (#12), Notre Dame (#13), Iowa (#20), and Michigan State (#23), are ranked among the top ranked defenses in yards allowed per play. Ohio State is number one. Michigan's own defense is third.
RB's Hassan Haskins and Zach Charbonnet: Just as much as anything, the team needed to find it's running game in order to make any real progress on offense throughout the season. The coaches seemed to be patient as fans collectively lost their minds over the course of the first three games, but it looks like it has paid off, as both Haskins and Charbonnet have split most of the carries and have become a real nuisance for opponents ever since that loss to Wisconsin. And while Haskins averages over five yards per carry, Charbonnet leads the team with 11 rushing TDs. Now defenses have to game plan for Michigan's run-game, which has helped open up some more passing lanes downfield. None of the backs have stood out in the last two weeks with the team taking full advantage of their receiving corps. They did collectively average over five yards per carry on first downs against Indiana. In fact, Michigan was actually a monster on first down plays throughout the day, and this unit's ability to fight for tough yards is definitely helping there. And if they can just continue to get solid runs on first down it will open things up against future opponents, with one in particular in mind. Tru Wilson, who is also also averaging over five yards per carry on the season, can fill in admirably when necessary.
The Wide Receivers: Where does one start here? I guess Nico Collins and his ability to win most jump balls downfield while averaging 21 yardes per reception is as good as any. He also has seven touchdowns to lead the team there too. Then there is Ronnie Bell who leads the team with 38 receptions and still averages nearly 17 yards per despite only having one TD on the year. He has had some issues with drops but he is too consistent of a playmaker once he gets the ball in his hands to take off the field. He also makes some of the best in-route adjustments on balls among the Michigan receiving corps. Donovan Peoples-Jones has also come alive in recent weeks with 121 yards on nine catches and two TD's during that span. Tarik Black seems to be a little bit lost in the shuffle out there at receiver but he has still managed to make a few timely grabs. He at least seems to be there when he is needed. There just isn't enough balls to go around. Mike Saintristil, Giles Jackson, and Cornelius Johnson are all doing a good job fighting for opportunities and providing solid depth at the position. All three have made the most of their limited opportunities, averaging 17.3 yards per catch on a combined 16 receptions. They have also put up three TD's, getting one apiece.
Don Brown's Defense: This entire unit has really come on this season as a whole. There really isn't any one star you could point to among the group that has been the centerpiece, but of course some guys are thriving in the stat sheet more than others. Some notables include:
Bonus Credit goes to the O-line: The OL has quietly played well most of the season. There were some issues at tackle in the first few month or so, which had a lot to do with injuries at both tackle spots, but the three interior linemen have been outstanding all year. In fact, left guard Ben Bredeson, center Cesar Ruiz, and right guard Michael Onwenu have not given up a sack among them all year. They will need to keep up that kind of production against a potent OSU pass rush in order for the Wolverines to win this game. Hopefully the interior at least plays well enough to allow the coaches to give the tackles a little help against the outside rush, particularly Chase Young.
So, does Michigan have a chance against Ohio State?
Yes, and here are five reasons why:
Last week nobody was giving the Wolverines a chance in this game against Ohio State. This week however, now that The Game is upon us, the sentiment is shifting a little bit. Folks are starting to believe that there is a good chance for an upset. The Vegas line has definitely shifted in that direction, coming down to nine after being in two touchdown territory.
There is talk of a Justin Fields injury. There is also talk that this game isn't as important to OSU, who is going to the Big Ten Championship game next week anyway, as it is to Michigan, who's entire season is basically coming down to it. The Harbaugh legacy is defiitely on the line a little bit as he does not want to go 0-5 in The Rivalry. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes could lose this game and still make the playoff as long as they win big next week.
There is the fact that Michigan is certainly peaking at the right time in regards to their season, so Michigan Nation is feeling a lot more confident in the team than they did just three weeks ago. Whether or not that feeling is short-lived doesn't matter. Just enjoy it while it's here. Just believe that the stars have basically aligned for a good ol' fashioned rivalry upset.
The Highlights:
QB Shea Patterson: Look, this team will go as far as the starting QB can take it, and everybody knows that Patterson didn't particularly look like the guy in the first half of the season. Many fans were asking for a change. We're not hearing that kind of chirp anymore though, as he's had his best games against some of their top competition in the last several weeks. In fact, he has an average passer rating of 166.73 over the last six games vs. Illinois, Penn State (#9 scoring defense), Notre Dame (#3 pass defense), Maryland, Michigan State (#21 in sacks), and Indiana (#25 pass defense). He has passed for nearly 800 yards with nine TD's and only one INT in the last two games alone. All those numbers are the types of numbers you see among the top 10 rated passers in the nation, including Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and Oregon's Justin Herbert. But it could be argued that none of the other top QB's in the country have faced as many good defenses throughout the season than Shea Patterson. Five of them, being Wisconsin (#11), Penn State (#12), Notre Dame (#13), Iowa (#20), and Michigan State (#23), are ranked among the top ranked defenses in yards allowed per play. Ohio State is number one. Michigan's own defense is third.
RB's Hassan Haskins and Zach Charbonnet: Just as much as anything, the team needed to find it's running game in order to make any real progress on offense throughout the season. The coaches seemed to be patient as fans collectively lost their minds over the course of the first three games, but it looks like it has paid off, as both Haskins and Charbonnet have split most of the carries and have become a real nuisance for opponents ever since that loss to Wisconsin. And while Haskins averages over five yards per carry, Charbonnet leads the team with 11 rushing TDs. Now defenses have to game plan for Michigan's run-game, which has helped open up some more passing lanes downfield. None of the backs have stood out in the last two weeks with the team taking full advantage of their receiving corps. They did collectively average over five yards per carry on first downs against Indiana. In fact, Michigan was actually a monster on first down plays throughout the day, and this unit's ability to fight for tough yards is definitely helping there. And if they can just continue to get solid runs on first down it will open things up against future opponents, with one in particular in mind. Tru Wilson, who is also also averaging over five yards per carry on the season, can fill in admirably when necessary.
The Wide Receivers: Where does one start here? I guess Nico Collins and his ability to win most jump balls downfield while averaging 21 yardes per reception is as good as any. He also has seven touchdowns to lead the team there too. Then there is Ronnie Bell who leads the team with 38 receptions and still averages nearly 17 yards per despite only having one TD on the year. He has had some issues with drops but he is too consistent of a playmaker once he gets the ball in his hands to take off the field. He also makes some of the best in-route adjustments on balls among the Michigan receiving corps. Donovan Peoples-Jones has also come alive in recent weeks with 121 yards on nine catches and two TD's during that span. Tarik Black seems to be a little bit lost in the shuffle out there at receiver but he has still managed to make a few timely grabs. He at least seems to be there when he is needed. There just isn't enough balls to go around. Mike Saintristil, Giles Jackson, and Cornelius Johnson are all doing a good job fighting for opportunities and providing solid depth at the position. All three have made the most of their limited opportunities, averaging 17.3 yards per catch on a combined 16 receptions. They have also put up three TD's, getting one apiece.
Don Brown's Defense: This entire unit has really come on this season as a whole. There really isn't any one star you could point to among the group that has been the centerpiece, but of course some guys are thriving in the stat sheet more than others. Some notables include:
- Josh Uche - 11.5 tackles for a loss, 8.5 sacks, 6.0 QB hurries (leads team in all three)
- Aiden Hutchinson - 8.5 tackles for a loss, 4.5 sacks, 6.0 passes broken up (second on team in PBU's)
- Kwity Paye - 11.0 tackles for a loss, 6.5 sacks
- Khaleke Hudson - 8.0 tackles per game (leads the team)
- Jordan Glasgow - 6.5 tackles per game, 5.0 tackles for a loss, 4.5 sacks, 4.0 QB hurries
- Lavert Hill - 3.0 interceptions, 7.0 pass broken up
- Ambry Thomas - 3.0 interceptions, 3.0 tackles for a loss, 4.0 passes broken up
- Josh Metellus - 55 tackles, 2.0 interceptions, 3.5 tackles for a loss, 5.0 passes broken up (among team leaders in all four categories)
Bonus Credit goes to the O-line: The OL has quietly played well most of the season. There were some issues at tackle in the first few month or so, which had a lot to do with injuries at both tackle spots, but the three interior linemen have been outstanding all year. In fact, left guard Ben Bredeson, center Cesar Ruiz, and right guard Michael Onwenu have not given up a sack among them all year. They will need to keep up that kind of production against a potent OSU pass rush in order for the Wolverines to win this game. Hopefully the interior at least plays well enough to allow the coaches to give the tackles a little help against the outside rush, particularly Chase Young.
So, does Michigan have a chance against Ohio State?
Yes, and here are five reasons why:
- The Buckeyes haven't played in any tough environments yet. Nebraska? Maybe if their team was anywhere nearly as good as Michigan's. Northwestern? Pffft, okay. If not, then it must've been Indiana because it wasn't Rutgers. Michigan will have a packed Big House backing the team. None of what the Buckeyes have faced this year will compare to it, especially when you consider Some of the other points I'm about to make.
- Over the course of the last six games, including three on the road and two against ranked opponents with top 20 defenses, Michigan's offense has put up an average of 38 points per game. That would be good enough for 13th in the nation. The Buckeyes are number one of course, so Michigan is hitting on all cylinders at just the right time after a rough start to the season. Sure, the edge does go to OSU, but one must remember that the game is in Ann Arbor this year and that the Buckeyes have not faced a defense like this in an environment like this yet. Speaking of the defense....
- Overall, Michigan's defense currently ranks 10th in the nation in scoring. They didn't really play their best ball in the first three games of the season though. In fact, since the loss to the Badgers nine weeks ago, this defense has only given up about 12 points per game. That is a top five stat right there. Just in the last five weeks alone Michigan's D has faced Penn State (#22 scoring offense), Notre Dame (#15 scoring offense), and Indiana (14th ranked passing offense). Two of those games were on the road and Michigan pretty much shut them all down for all but the first half in Happy Valley.
- Ohio State hasn't faced many good offenses yet. Before Penn State last week, the best offense they had faced was the Badgers, who are ranked 30th in scoring at the moment. Those numbers are a bit inflated though due to some huge early season blowouts against weaker competition. And yes, that included Michigan, but I can guarantee you that the Badger team OSU faced at home three weeks ago is not the same one that Michigan faced on the road way back in week three. Just as much, the Michigan team that the Buckeyes will be facing will be a lot different than that one the Badgers faced two and half months ago. Where Wisconsin has regressed, Michigan has definitely progressed, and Ohio State has consistently looked great all year. Penn State did show though, that the ball can be moved on that defense. If that game was at PSU it probably would have been a different story. Regardless, it was a good sign for a Michigan offense that has been soaring lately after showing small glimpses all year. Again, it can't be stated enough how much an advantage Michigan has over both Penn State and Wisconsin as the Wolverines's offense won't have to deal with the noise in Columbus. I mean, it's such such an advantage to have this game in Ann Arbor that John O'Korn nearly won two years ago.
Comments
Post a Comment