Why I Continue to Feel More Optimistic About the Future Under Harbaugh

There is a lot of talk coming from the Michigan fanbase's less appreciative fans. They don't seem to like the job Harbaugh has done. Yes, they do have some great points considering Harbaugh's record against ranked opponents, particularly on the road where he has never beaten one. Oh, and there is his 0-5 record against Ohio State. Those things do hurt. And those things do need to change. It's just not enough to get rid of the guy who I still believe is the best option for Michigan football that is out there. I am willing to listen to arguments if someone has a possible option to respectably fill the head coaching job at Michigan and get the team over the next hump, then by all means speak up. I've been asking on message boards for over a year now and I still haven't gotten any good leads.

At any rate, you do not get rid of a coach that literally just dug your program out of the gutter. You also never fire a coach simply on the fact that he hasn't yet been able to win the hardest games against the best teams in the country. The entire culture surrounding the program needed to be rebuilt from the ground up. That is no easy task. There is still a lot of work to do. And I can't think of any better available options.

One of the biggest issues of the last couple years has to do with the level of veteran leadership on the team. There was a big lull in recruiting as Hoke was on his way out and Harbaugh was coming in. The cupboards were left fairly dry for a couple years, and as I have illustrated in the first section of this piece, it left the program without veteran leadership down the road.

But before I get into it, I have one hypothetical question to ask: Would the 2019 season have turned out any different if Rashan Gary, Devin Bush Jr., and David Long all decided to return for their senior years? They all had another year of eligibility remaining and all tThose three all played positions that had some struggled at times last season. Anyway...


The Facts of the Matter Concerning Harbaugh's Six Years of Recruiting at Michigan:

Breaking down each class of recruits so far in the Harbaugh era:

1. Class of 2015 - Very few people realize how much the 2015 recruiting cycle hurt Michigan football and even less give it any credit at all for slowing down the Harbaugh program reclamation job. I would go so far as to say that Michigan was hurt more by this class of recruits (or lack thereof) for the last couple years more than any other reason. Those guys were the first senior class recruited in the Harbaugh era that should've been the foundation for the coaches to build from, but it was barely a top 50 class by every measure and still it managed to underachieve a bit. As we all know, Harbaugh was hired at the end of December in 2014 and had just about a month to piece that first class of his together. He landed 14 recruits in all that year, with a mere six of them being 4-Star players. Only five players in all, tight end Zach Gentry, running back Karan Higdon, safety Tyree Kinnel, receiver Grant Perry, and offensive lineman Jon Runyan Jr., were able to have decent careers as Wolverines. In the end, nine kids from that class ended up with degrees. It should've been twice that number. This really has left the team without much veteran leadership over the last couple seasons and the team literally got zero production along the D-line, at linebacker, cornerback, and at quarterback from this class. It is hard to expect to win many games when this occurs. But what did we expect Harbaugh to do after Brady Hoke and his circus ran all the top recruits formerly committed in that class off to other schools.
2. The now mostly depleted class of prospects from 2016, who have either graduated, transferred, or left early for the NFL, was actually quite a success. It produced the likes of Rashan Gary, Devin Bush Jr., David Long, Lavert Hill, Ben Bredeson, Khaleke Hudson, and Josh Metellus, as well as a dozen others that made an impact over the last few years. This year it will provide a few key fifth-year seniors in defensive tackle Carlo Kemp (returning captain), tight end Nick Eubanks, kicker Quinn Nordin, LB Devin Gil, and C Andrew Vastardis, who was actually a preferred walk-on in that class. None of them are expected to be super stars by any means, but three out of the five have proven to be productive starters already and the other two are veteran backups that should help with depth. They should by all accounts be leaders, which could be their most important contribution to the team. The coaches are lucky to be getting them all back. Getting running back Chris Evans back after a year off while suspended from the team will also make things interesting. He too could end up being a leader on the team, especially when one considers his body of work, as well as his circumstances and what he is currently overcoming. So that will be six 5th-year players compared to the one the team had last year.  
3. Upon further review, the idea that Michigan's 2017 recruiting class is a total flop is completely wrong. Nearly half of the class could be considered a bust as 15 of them have left the program after only three years. On the surface, that doesn't look very good. But even if you erase all those players from that class altogether, the remaining 15 would still have ranked in the top 20 that year. It should also be worth mentioning that two of the players transferring out have already graduated from the school and one other guy in the class had to medically retire from football. While the ones that have stayed haven't yet become champions, they are doing fairly well for themselves. Two guys from this class are leaving early for the NFL and several others are looking to be senior leaders this coming year. Gone are Donovan Peoples-Jones and center Cesar Ruiz for the draft. Good luck to them on their endeavors. Receiver Nico Collins and cornerback Ambry Thomas could've both gone pro too. Both chose to come back for one final year as preseason All-American candidates. Safety Brad Hawkins, defensive end Kwity Paye, and fullback Ben Mason will all be returning as figureheads on the field and in the locker room for 2020 as well. Their combined experience will go a long way in leading this team. Linebacker Josh Ross and offensive tackle Andrew Stueber will both look to bounce back as starters after missing 2019 with injuries. They too could be leaders on their own units. Other players from the c/o '17 to watch out for this spring and fall are guard Chuck Filiaga, quarterback Dylan McCaffrey, defensive tackle Donovan Jeter, and defensive end Luiji Vilain. All four should be competing hard for playing time as seniors and a few of them could end up starting. Again, I have to admit, I was in fact wrong when I said this group of players was a total flop. It's been solid and it still has a chance to end up being great, and I see six senior starters on offense and five on defense if you include the 5th-year guys too. Needless to say, the 2020 version of Michigan football will be very experienced overall. Grade: B
4. The class of 2018, which barely made it into the top 20 of the 247 team rankings that year, has proven to be one of the most underrated classes we've seen at Michigan in a while. Defensive end Aiden Hutchinson, linebacker Cam McGrone, receiver Ronnie Bell, offensive tackle Jalen Mayfield, cornerback Vincent Gray, K David Moody and running back Hassan Haskins all return as starters or regular contributors. I would say that five of them have legit All-Conference potential going into their junior seasons, with the other two being darkhorse candidates. Other guys from this class that will compete for a starting job this spring are quarterback Joe Milton, offensive tackle Ryan Hayes, and linebacker Michael Barrett. Cornerback Gemon Green, running back Christian Turner, and tight end Luke Schoonmaker should all be in the mix for playing time too, but there might not be enough snaps to go around for them. In all, I predict that there will be eight starters in 2020 from this class, and about another five that will be contributors. That is solid. Some of the other guys whose development could be interesting are defensive end Taylor Upshaw, defensive lineman Julius Welschof, running back/fullback Ben Van Sumeren, cornerback Sammy Faustin, and safety German Green. Grade: B+
5. There is a lot we don't know about the class of 2019 yet, as it is really way too early to tell. We will know a lot more at this time next year I'm sure. However, I do like what I have seen so far from several players within the group. Running back Zach Charbonnet, safety Dax Hill and defensive tackle Christopher Hinton all worked themselves into starting positions as true freshmen. With all of them having been highly-rated prospects they will of course be looked as future stars at their respective positions. I for one am excited about their futures, as I am the futures of wide receivers Giles Jackson and Mike Saintristil. Both guys should get a lot of looks this year and both have a lot of big-play potential. Tight End Erick All and receiver Cornelius Johnson have each flashed some ability to play as well, and more will be expected of them soon. Offensive lineman Karsen Barnhart, defensive tackle Mazi Smith, cornerback D.J. Turner II, cornerback Jalen Perry, defensive end David Ojabo, safety/viper Quentin Johnson, and linebacker Anthony Solomon should all be competing for a spot on the two-deep this year too. My big darkhorse candidate out of this group is quarterback Cade McNamara. He is actually my favorite passing prospect on the roster. As I've said before, his high school highlight reel and stat sheet is much more impressive than Milton's or McCaffrey's. In fact, McNamara passed for more yards in high school than the other two guys did combined. He just isn't as tall or athletic. Three other names I might throw out there are offensive tackle Trente Jones, offensive guard/center Nolan Rumler, and defensive lineman Mike Morris. There could be a dozen players from this class contributing regularly in year two. Early Grade: A
6. The newly signed class of 2020 is by all accounts a solid top ten class. The only unfortunate event is how things played out at quarterback in this cycle, but Michigan still made out in the end better than 98% of the rest of the country. As far as guys that I would consider players to watch for right away this fall I would say receiver A.J. Henning, running back Blake Corum, linebacker Kalel Mullings, safety Jordan Morant, offensive guard Zak Zinter, and both cornerbacks Darion Green-Warren and Andre Seldon. Some other guys to consider watch-worthy might be linebacker Nikhai Hill-Green, linebacker William Mohan, defensive end Jaylen Harrell, linebacker Osman Savage, safety Makari Paige, and receiver Roman Wilson. And as far as I'm concerned, Dan Villari is not a bad QB prospect. There are plenty of guys who were similar prospects that now play in the NFL. Projected Grade: B+

The Data: 

Talent Level and Senior Leadership of Michigan's Roster Over the Last Three Seasons

Just like the rankings list, the talent level rankings below work in that the lower the number the better. In fact, the score reflects what those respective team's average of where they should've been projected to finish in the rankings based on the previous four years of recruiting. It is a measurement of the roster talent on that given year. Make sense? No? Oh well...


2017

Overall Talent Ranking Score: 20.25
Senior Leadership Ranking: 22nd
Final Ranking:
Analysis:


2018

Score: 20.75
Juniors
Seniors
5th-year Players: 7 (2 4-Stars)
Final Ranking:
Analysis:


2019

Overall Talent Score: 11
Juniors 20 (1 5-Star, 9 4-Stars)
Seniors: 17 (Three 4-Stars, )
5th-year Players: 2 (One 3-Star, One 2-Star)
Final Ranking:
Analysis:

2020

Raw Talent Ranking: 11th Nationally
Positional Distribution of Talent (includes incoming freshmen):
-- QB - Three 4-Stars
-- RB - Three 4-Stars, Four 3-Stars
-- WR -
Team Experience: Seven players returning on offense with starting experience. Eleven players returning on defense with starting experience. (18 total) National Ranking:
Upper Class-men Leadership Eval:
-- Juniors: 18 (One 5-Star, Six 4-Stars, Eleven 3-Stars)
-- Seniors: 15 (Eight 4-Stars, Seven 3-Stars) 
-- 5th-Year Players: 6 (Two 4-Stars - including one returning captain, Three 3-Stars, One 2-Star)
-- Total Upperclassmen: 40 (One 5-Star, Sixteen 4-Stars, Twenty-One 3-Stars, Two 2-Stars)
-- Total Leadership Ranking: ?

2021

Raw Talent Ranking:

Five Things Different About This Year's Team:

1. This is the first team that will be quarterbacked completely by a Harbaugh recruited passer at the helm. There won't be any more transfers to come in and compete for the job. And no more excuses. It will be one of three guys that were recruited to Michigan and signed with the program on the national signing day of the their respective cycles. They didn't pick any other school first. They were all Michigan from the get-go. They all were initially early enrollees too, so they have lots of practice time behind them. The development period is over. It is now finally time to see what Harbuagh's recruits can do at the most important position on any football team. And this is one of the biggest reasons why year six will be a better judgement on Harbuagh's job at Michigan than year four or five were altogether. 
2. When has the running back position ever been this loaded? There are three guys coming back for 2020 with lots of experience in Zach Charbonnet, Hassan Haskins, and Chris Evans. The former two are coming off breakout seasons in the Michigan backfield. Evans is back from a one year suspension after some "academic issues". If he can get back to where he was playing during his freshman and sophomore seasons then he could be a comeback player of the year candidate. The addition of Blake Corum, one of the top running back prospects in the country for 2020, only adds another layer of depth that we haven't seen here in a very long time, if ever. I see four guys with legit ability to help carry the offense, and there will be at least two more guys on the bench just waiting for an opportunity to show what they can do. I see you Ben VanSumeren and Christian Turner. 
3. The defense will return 11 players with starting experience in the maize and blue. Aiden Hutchinson, Kwity Paye, Carlo Kemp, Christopher Hinton, Michael Dwumfour, Cam McGrone, Josh Ross, Ambry Thomas, Vincent Gray, Brad Hawkins, and Dax Hill have all clocked a bunch of high quality minutes as Wolverines, including at least one start each. They will all be back to compete and give the team one of the most experienced defenses in the conference. There is some young, rising talent on the bench looking to break through too, particularly in the secondary, as well as some talented freshmen coming in this winter and summer. I see about a half dozen freshman defenders that could be ready to fill some holes in the two-deep, and maybe one or two ready for even bigger roles. 
4. Despite losing a couple very highly-touted veteran receivers to the NFL and transfer portal, the team still returns its two top pass-catchers from 2019. Ronnie Bell, despite only having one touchdown, led the team in receptions (48) and yards (758) as a sophomore. He was often a big play just waiting to happen when Shea Patterson needed it the most. It just seems like a fluke that he didn't score more often, but some dropped passes in the red zone were an issue for him. Watch for him to improve in the red zone. Nico Collins was the team's best deep threat that could go up and out-muscle opponents to get those 50/50 balls. He led the team with over 19 yards per reception and will be the senior leader on this offense. And speaking about average yards per reception, here is an interesting stat: while that same duo that is choosing not to stay averaged 12.9 yards per catch between them, the top four guys coming back - Collins, Bell, Giles Jackson and Mike Saintristil - averaged 17.35 yards per catch collectively. The position is indeed getting faster and it should show next fall. Another dose of speed will be injected into the offense this summer when freshmen A.J. Henning, Roman Wilson, and Eamonn Dennis finally get to campus. Henning in particular appears to have an array of skills that could lead to a lot of points from a variety of places. 
5. The team loses four linebackers to graduation and transfer, including two guys that were starters, but they are actually returning their best two players at the position. Yep, Josh Ross, who missed all of 2019 with an injury, and Cam McGrone, who really showed up in Ross' absence, will be two of the best in the conference. Michael Barrett feels like a good fit at Viper too. I like his athleticism and versatility anyway. Several freshmen and sophomores will make up a bulk of the backups, which is fine considering the plethora of talent the coaches recruited and signed here this year. 

Bonus Points: The team has to replace four starters from a good offensive line and somehow it doesn't have a feel of desperation to it. I would say that is mostly because of how the team has recruited and developed the position the last few years. The team returns three guys with starting experience. Right tackle Jalen Mayfield returns after starting 12 games at the position in 2019. Ryan Hayes has two starts at left tackle to his credit while he was backing up Jon Runyan Jr. last year. He should be primed for an increased role, though sophomore Trente Jones might be talented enough to give him a run for his money. Mayfield could move over to this spot too, if needed. Andrew Stueber, who initially won the battle at right tackle before suffering a knee injury, will return with several starts on his resume as well. He could fill in at guard and could be an imposing figure next to Hayes. At least one guard spot will probably fall to Chuck Filiaga, a senior player with no starts to his credit though he was a top backup last year and a former 4-Star prospect from Texas. He should be just fine in replace of Onwenu or Bredeson. If not, sophomores Nolan Rumler and Karsen Barnhart, or freshman Zack Zinter, could be up for the job. Center will be the toughest position to replace with Cesar Ruiz leaving early. Former walk-on Andrew Vastardis could be the leader for the job, but Rumler, along with fellow sophomore Zach Carpenter and freshman Reece Attebury, should all challenge him for the job throughout the spring and summer. For perspective, the five guys that I have projected to be the starters this fall tip the scales with an average of 6'6" and 323lbs across the board. That is a big O-line. Four of the five were 4-Star prospects and only one was a three. There will be two seniors, two juniors and only one real underclassman in the lineup. My money is on either Rumler or Barnhart to be that guy.