Blind Projection: Matching Up With the Gophers

Key Matchups to Watch:

Minnesota WR Rashod Bateman  Vs. The Michigan Cornerbacks - Bateman is arguably the Gophers best player. He is a possible first round prospect that could go as high as the top 10. LSU's Jamar Chase might be the only receiver currently ranked higher by many scouts. It could be argued that he benefitted from playing with record setting Gophers like WR Tyler Johnson and RB Rodney Smith. At any rate, I expect P.J. Fleck and his quarterback, Tanner Morgan, to attempt to get Bateman the ball as much as possible against a suspect group of Michigan corners. They are just too young and inexperienced for Bateman to not take total advantage of them if he is in fact a top NFL receiving prospect. Because as much as I think junior Vincent Gray can be a good cover guy, I personally wouldn't put my money on him to win that matchup on a regular basis this Saturday. I would seek to mix up some coverages and try to keep him guessing. Throw in a bunch of two and cover three zone schemes to try to keep the offense in front of tacklers all night in hopes the overall team speed on defense can get there to make the play. The defense can actually win this matchup, as even with all those playmakers last season the Gophers still only ranked 4th in the Big Ten and 47th in the nation in passing last season. They were ranked right there with Michigan, Notre Dame, and Temple, so it's not like they were a juggernaut and there is really no reason they will be one this year either. And to think Michigan doesn't have the talent in order to make something work here is a mistake. They definitely do have a wealth of talent that runs deeper than Minnesota's. It's just a matter of whether they are truly ready to play or not. 

Advantage Minnesota

Confidence Level: 3/10 

The Minnesota Secondary Vs. The Michigan Passing Attack - Minnesota had the ninth best pass defense in the nation last season with their 4-2-5 nickel defense as their base. Corners Benjamin St-Juste, a former Michigan Wolverine, and Coney Durr will be be very good as the starting corners, and Jordan Howden will return as the team's top tackler at one of the safety spots. Gone, however, is All-Big Ten safety Antoine Winfield Jr. who is now making waves in Tampa while starting for the Buccaneers. While they will be without Nico Collins going forward, Michigan does actually bring back its leading pass catcher in Ronnie Bell. He will most-likely have sophomores Cornelius Johnson and Giles Jackson in the starting lineup with him at receiver. Mike Saintristil, A.J. Henning, and Roman Wilson will get some reps too. Collectively, it might be the most speed that the team has had at receiver since Rich Rod was coach. And there are three tight ends on the roster, including team captain Nick Eubanks, who could take advantage of some coverage mismatches. The big difference will be whether or not new starting quarterback Joe Milton can step into the role and deliver passes to guys wearing the same color jersey or not. It is a big first test for the inexperienced passer. I don't doubt that his fourth and fifth options in the passing game should be better than the fourth and fifth coverage players he will be facing. It's just a matter if he is capable of making the reads and finding them. Of course, the offensive line will play a big role in how much time he will have to make his reads, but I believe they will be very good in pass coverage against a suspect Minnesota front seven.

(Slight) Advantage: Minnesota

Confidence Level: 4/10 

The Michigan D-Line Vs. The Minnesota O-line - The Gophers return their entire starting O-line. Among them is at least one NFL prospect in tackle Daniel Faalele, who looks like a top 100-type of prospect. That is a solid base to build an offense around. The one problem is that it's the same offensive line that gave up 30 sacks last season, ranking 94th in the nation in sacks allowed, and Michigan has two future high draft picks in ends Kwity Paye and Aiden Hutchinson attacking from the edges. Both guys could be real nightmares for QB Tanner Morgan. Michigan also returns three tackles with starts to their credit, including returning team captain Carlo Kemp and former 5-Star prospect Christopher Hinton, who started against 'Bama. Jess Speight, a former walk-on, also started against 'Bama. Senior Donovan Jeter is apparently challenging him for the job this year though, so there is a possibility that the Wolverines will have exactly the type of four-man tackle rotation they desire up front on defense. Their respective progress from last season will go a long way towards stopping running back Mohamed Ibrahim, but I believe their primary focus up front will be to harass the passer. 

Advantage: Michigan

Confidence Level: 8/10

The Michigan O-line vs. The Minnesota Front Seven - Yes, Michigan technically loses four of its five starters from last year. That is true. It really isn't as bad as it sounds though. Right tackle Jalen Mayfield, arguably the best Michigan tackle since Taylor Lewan, returns on the right side. Andrew Stueber will start at guard next to him. Stueber already has three starts to his credit too, and would've been a starter last season had he not gotten injured. Collectively, those two guys average 6'6" and about 325lbs. That is a lot of mass and it leads me to believe that this could be a combo that nets the Wolverines a ton of rushing yards on the right side of the line this season. Ryan Hayes will start at left tackle and he already has two starts there. Overall his resume so far. along with a ton of raw athleticism on a 6'7"/300lb frame, make me think that he will be just fine as Joe Milton's blind side protector. Senior Chuck Filiaga, a former 4-Star prospect, will get the nod at left guard and fifth-year senior Andrew Vastardis, who is a former walk-on who just earned a scholarship last year, will man the center position. Neither one has ever started a game, so if there is an obvious weak spot to exploit along the line it would be here. The problem for Minnesota is that they are losing six of their top ten tacklers from last season, including their top three guys. They also lose their top two pass-rushers from last year and the two inside 'backers projected to start only combined for 45 tackles last season, so it's fair to say that they are a bit of a question mark up front on defense. They do have some good-looking bodies with perhaps just enough experience to make it work, so nobody should go into the season thinking Coach Fleck and his crew can't find a way to field a good unit. I just think Michigan's O-line is a little underrated and this is the type of matchup that they should be winning on a regular basis. 

Advantage: Michigan

Confidence Level: 7/10

The Michigan Running Backs Vs. The Minnesota Linebackers - Again, as stated above, the Gophers do not return very much production in their front seven. Notably, the linebackers will be without starting middle linebacker Thomas Barber for the first time since 2016 and there is not much experienced talent to work with on the depth chart, subsequently making the linebacker position one of the biggest question marks on the team. On the other side of the ball, Michigan will be lining up a number of guys that have proven to be real threats in the Big Ten. First, Zach Charbonnet broke the Michigan freshman record with 11 rushing touchdowns. He also proved to be a good pass-blocker and measures in at a very chiseled 6'0"/220lbs. He will start. Hassan Haskins will be the top sub. He is a little more jittery than Charbonnet and is capable of taking over games himself when he gets hot (see Notre Dame, 2019). Chris Evans returns after a one-year suspension from all team activities and he appears to be determined to prove himself once again. He definitely has the talent and his receiving skills make him a threat on third downs. I feel very good with him in the third spot back there. It could all be too much for Minnesota's inexperienced defense. 

Advantage: Michigan

Confidence Level: 8/10

Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan Vs. The Michigan Safeties - Morgan is one of the top returning passers in the Big Ten and he gives the Gophers a lot of confidence coming into the season. He also has a small array of weapons, most notably receiver Rashod Bateman, so he will be looking to put improve upon his numbers from last season. With such big question marks out at corner for Michigan, it's not hard to imagine that the Gopher passing attack is licking its chops in hopes of making a statement to kick the season off, and they are capable of doing just that. However, Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown is blessed with what appears to be a wealth of talent at safety. So much in fact that it has allowed him to be a little more flexible with some players. He has even mentioned moving sophomore free/cover safety Dax Hill around and using him more like a "chess piece", as he called it, to take advantage of the array of speed and skills he brings to the table. Rover Brad Hawkins is no slouch either, and he also is a very versatile player in his own right. Together they could be the best safety duo in the conference. And with a couple of highly rated upstart freshmen stepping up into backup roles there is potential to see a lot of creativity back there in order to get the job done. I have enough confidence that Michigan has good safeties. I just don't know if they will be used to their full potential or not, and their efforts might not be enough to make up for any shortcomings at corner. 

(Slight) Advantage: Minnesota 

Confidence Level: 5/10

The Minnesota Running Backs and Tight Ends Vs. The Michigan Linebackers - Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim presents a good challenge for Michigan defenders. He is a solid player at 5'10"/210lbs. He ran for 1,100 yards in 2018 but missed a few games early in 2019, thus giving way to Rodney Smith's fabulous season. Ibrahim still averaged nearly 5.5 yards per carry though. He is limited with what he can do, as he only has seven receptions for 39 yards in two years with the Gophers, so the team will try to find some relief for him on passing downs. If another guy does not emerge this attack could be dead in the water. The tight ends look more like extra linemen out there, and the two top guys they have only had four catches apiece last season. They will all be facing off with a set of inside linebackers in Cam McGrone and Josh Ross that could be an All-Conference duo this year for Michigan. It will be their job to stop any sort of run game. The outside 'backer, or "Viper", is junior Michael Barrett. He played quarterback AND linebacker for a state championship high school team in Georgia. He reportedly runs a 4.5 forty and performed very well on special teams last season. His responsibilities will fall more in the passing game, whether it's dropping into coverage or rushing the passer. Minnesota's offensive line does return intact, but remember they still only rushed for just over four yards per carry as a team last season, ranking sixth in the Conference. On the contrary, Michigan only gave up 3.2 yards per carry last season and their defensive front seven is actually expecting to be improved. If Michigan can keep Minnesota close to three yards per carry without relying on the secondary for much support then that will go a long way towards keeping the offense bottled up.

Advantage: Michigan

Confidence Level: 8/10

Final Score Prediction: Michigan 28 - 24